[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 June 17 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 5 09:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on the UT day, 4 June. Expect
Very Low to Low solar activity for the next 3 UT days, 5-7 June.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery
up to 04/2136 UT. On the UT day, 4 June, the solar wind speed
reached its maximum value of 500 km/s at 0100 UT due to the coronal
hole effect, then it gradually decreased to 400 km/s. Over the
last 24 hours the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Btotal and its
Bz component varied in the ranges 2-6 nT and -1/+3 nT, respectively,
its Bz component was predominately positive. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain near its background values for the next
24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 10000000
Cocos Island 0 10000000
Darwin 1 11110000
Townsville 1 11110001
Learmonth 0 10000000
Alice Springs 0 10000000
Culgoora 1 11100000
Gingin 0 20000000
Camden 1 11100000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 10010000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 12210100
Mawson 3 22111002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 1022 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jun 7 Quiet
07 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: In the Australian region geomagnetic activity was Quiet
over the UT day, 4 June. For 5 June the geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels and occasionally may
reach Unsettled levels due to the elevated solar wind speed.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for 6-7 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs are expected for
5-7 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jun 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jun 8 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 8 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 8 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over
the Australian region on UT day 4 June. Expect mostly near predicted
monthly MUFs during the next three UT days, 5-7 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 38400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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