[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 June 17 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 3 09:30:24 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jun             04 Jun             05 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 2 June. The largest 
flare, C8.1, peaked at 1757 UT was produced by Active Region 
2661 (now at N05E56). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in 
the available LASCO imagery up to 2/1600 UT. Expect Low solar 
activity with a chance for M-class flares for the next 3 UT days, 
3-5 June. During the UT day, 2 June, the solar wind speed decreased 
from 450 km/s to 360 km/s. The speed is expected to increase 
for the next 24 hours due to coronal hole effects. Over the last 
24 hours the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Btotal and its Bz 
component varied in the range 2-6 nT and +2/-3 nT, respectively.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11010010
      Cocos Island         1   11100011
      Darwin               1   10001011
      Townsville           2   11111011
      Learmonth            2   10111020
      Alice Springs        0   00000010
      Culgoora             1   11010010
      Gingin               2   11000021
      Camden               1   11010110
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           2   11011110
      Hobart               2   21010110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   01120000
      Casey                5   22211121
      Mawson              15   53222142

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1112 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active
04 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 2 June and 
is current for 3 Jun only. In the Australian region geomagnetic 
activity was Quiet over the UT day, 2 June. On 3 June the geomagnetic 
activity may reach Active levels due to a coronal hole effect, 
then it is expected to return to Quiet to Unsettled levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs are expected for 
3-5 June. Degraded HF communication at higher latitudes, especially 
in the Northern hemisphere, are possible on 3 June due to expected 
increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jun    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      10
Jun      12
Jul      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%
04 Jun    12    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
05 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over 
the Australian region with minor depression over the Northern 
Australian region during local day. Sporadic E were also observed. 
Expect mostly near predicted monthly MUFs during the next three 
UT days, 3-5 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 356 km/sec  Density:    9.3 p/cc  Temp:    19000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list