[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 May 17 issued 2330 UT on 31 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 1 09:30:21 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jun             02 Jun             03 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              76/14              77/16

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 31 May, with 
three C-class flares occurred near the limb. No spots are visible 
on the solar disk. Expect Low solar activity for the next 3 UT 
days, 1-3 June. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
LASCO imagery for 31 May. A CME associated with the long filament 
which disappeared at 30/0959-1444 UT does not seem to be geoeffective. 
The solar wind speed was gradually decreasing from 530 km/s to 
340 km/s. The speed is expected to remain near background values 
for the next 24 hours. Over the last 24 hours the Interplanetary 
Magnetic Field Btotal and its Bz component varied in the range 
6-8 nT and +5/-2 nT, respectively. The Bz component was predominantly 
positive.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01111100
      Cocos Island         1   01111001
      Darwin               4   12112111
      Townsville           6   2-13211-
      Learmonth            2   02112000
      Alice Springs        1   01101100
      Culgoora             1   01101101
      Gingin               1   01011100
      Camden               2   02101100
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Launceston           2   02011101
      Hobart               1   01011000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   01012000
      Casey                3   ---21011
      Mawson               5   12111132

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2311 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jun     7    Quiet
02 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active
03 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: In the Australian region geomagnetic activity was Quiet 
over the UT day, 31 May. Expect geomagnetic activity to remain 
at Quiet levels for 1 June. On 2-3 June the geomagnetic activity 
may reach Active levels due to a coronal hole effect.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs expected for 1-3 
June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 May     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      14
May      12
Jun      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun    12    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over 
the Australian region. Sporadic E were also observed. Expect 
mostly near predicted monthly MUFs during the next three UT days, 
1-3 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 521 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:   503000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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