[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 July 17 issued 2347 UT on 07 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 8 09:47:33 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with one
C-class flare and several B-class flares from active region 2665
(S05E55) the only sunspot group on the visible disc. Expect Low
solar activity for the next three days with a slight chance for
M-class flares. No Earthward bound CMEs observed from LASCO C2
imagery up to 07/2048UT. The solar wind speed ranged from 450km/s
to 350km/s over the last 24 hours and is currently 350km/s. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz
ranged from +/-4nT during this same period and Btotal varied
between 1 to 7 nT. Expect the solar wind to remain in this range
for most of the UT day, however late in the UT day expect the
solar wind to gradually increase to strong levels due to the
influence of a geoeffective equatorial positive polarity recurrent
coronal hole and associated high speed stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 12000101
Cocos Island 2 02110101
Darwin 2 12100101
Townsville 3 22110111
Learmonth 2 21010110
Alice Springs 1 12000100
Norfolk Island 1 22000000
Gingin 2 11000211
Camden 3 12101111
Canberra 0 11000000
Launceston 3 22001111
Hobart 1 11001101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 10001000
Casey 5 32100221
Mawson 13 33111325
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 1122222-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
09 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 7 July and
is current for 8-9 Jul. Quiet conditions observed during the
last 24 hours in the Australian region. Expect mostly Quiet conditions
today, 08 July, however late in the UT day expect geomagnetic
activity to increase to Active and Minor Storm levels due to
high speed solar wind stream becoming geoeffective. the following
two days 09-10 July will likely be mostly Quiet to Unsettled
with isolated Active periods over the Australian region.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jul Normal Normal Poor-normal
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect possible degraded HF communication at high latitudes
on 9-10 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian observed MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values over the last 24 hours. Expect near predicted
monthly values for the next three days, however possible degraded
HF communication at higher latitudes on 9-10 July. Noted spread
F in the Australian region during local night time hours and
isolated pockets of sporadic E during the UT day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: NA
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: NA
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: NA
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 33300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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