[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 June 17 issued 2353 UT on 30 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sat Jul 1 09:53:25 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jul             02 Jul             03 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. 
Region 2664 (N18W59) is currently the only region on the visible 
disc and was the source of a slow moving partial halo CME on 
the 28Jun. The solar wind speed ranged between 397km/s and 327km/s 
over the UT day and is ~350km/s at the time of this report. The 
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 
+/-2nT from 00UT to 18UT. Bz has increased in magnitude since 
and is currently between +3nT and -5nT at the time of this report. 
Solar wind speed is expected to remain at nominal values for 
01Jul. An increase in solar wind parameters is expected 02Jul-03Jul 
with the anticipated arrival of a glancing blow CME and an additional 
influence of a small equatorial located coronal hole. Very Low 
solar activity is expected for the next 3 days with a small chance 
of C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00001001
      Cocos Island         1   10001001
      Darwin               1   01101001
      Townsville           2   00101012
      Learmonth            1   00011001
      Alice Springs        1   01101001
      Norfolk Island       2   21101001
      Gingin               1   00002001
      Camden               2   01102001
      Canberra             0   00001000
      Launceston           2   10012011
      Hobart               1   -0002001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   00012000
      Casey                3   21111102
      Mawson               8   12222124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1232 1121     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jul    14    Unsettled to Active
03 Jul    25    Active

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet 
with possible Unsettled periods expected on 01Jul. Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions with the chance of Active periods late on the UT day 
for 02Jul due to possible CME effects. Active conditions possible 
for 03Jul should CME and minor coronal hole effects eventuate.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Observed MUF's were mostly near predicted monthly values 
over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal MUFs and HF conditions 
expected for the next 2 days. Depressed MUFs for mid to high 
latitudes expected due to increased geomagnetic activity for 
03Jul.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
30 Jun     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      10
Jun      10
Jul      9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul    -5    Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUF's near predicted monthly values over the 
last 24 hours. Similar ionospheric support is expected for the 
next 2 days. Depressed MUF's possible for Southern AUS/NZ and 
Antarctic regions 03Jul due to increased geomagnetic activity 
expected between 02Jul-03Jul.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 429 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:   174000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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