[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Jan 23 10:30:19 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jan             24 Jan             25 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery. 
Solar activity is likely to be Low with a chance of M-class flares 
for the next 3 days 23-25 Jan. The solar wind speed fluctuated 
around 500 km/s with a peak around 560 km/s at 22/0957UT. The 
IMF total strength peaked at 9.6 nT at 22/0222UT. Bz fluctuated 
between -5 to 9 nT in the first half of the UT day 22 Jan, then 
the fluctuations reduced to +/-3 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected 
to gradually decline over the next two days 23-24 Jan as the 
effects of the coronal hole high speed stream wanes. ACE EPAM 
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 22/1645UT, 
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over 
next 24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22223112
      Cocos Island         5   22213200
      Darwin               6   12213112
      Townsville           8   22223222
      Learmonth            6   22213211
      Alice Springs        7   22213212
      Norfolk Island       6   22222122
      Gingin               8   22323211
      Camden               8   22323121
      Canberra             5   12222111
      Launceston          11   23333222
      Hobart               9   22333003    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     8   22143111
      Casey               25   46533222
      Mawson              27   54323336

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan : 
      Darwin               5   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            5   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        3   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   3122 1132     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jan     5    Quiet
25 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the Australian 
region on 22 Jan, with some Active periods in high latitudes. 
The geomagnetic activity was due to elevated wind speeds from 
a coronal hole. Conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled 
on 23 Jan returning to Quiet levels on 24-25 Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jan     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      2
Jan      21
Feb      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jan     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
24 Jan     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
25 Jan     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 22 
January and is current for 22-24 Jan. On 22 Jan, MUFs experienced 
minor depressions over the Australian region. Solar activity 
returned to Very Low over the last 24 hours so minor depressions 
in MUFs are expected to continue on 23 Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 498 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    88400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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