[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Jan 6 10:30:50 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jan             07 Jan             08 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the 
UT day 5 January. Very low solar activity is expected for the 
next 3 UT days (6-8 January). No Earth directed CMEs were observed 
in the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed was steady 
up to 0745 UT, varying in the range 480-560 km/s. Then it increased 
and reached its peak value of ~740 km/s at 2215 UT, currently 
at 710 km/s. The IMF Bt varied in the range 6-12 nT. The Bz component 
varied between -9 and +6 nT. There was a prolong period with 
the southward orientation, from 0000 UT to 0240 UT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to remain enhanced on 6 January in response 
to the high speed streams from the relatively large recurrent 
coronal hole. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement 
event beginning 05/1745UT, which can be a precursor to increased 
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   23223333
      Cocos Island        10   22223332
      Darwin              11   23223323
      Townsville          11   23223323
      Learmonth           14   33233333
      Alice Springs       11   23223323
      Gingin              13   23223433
      Camden              12   23223333
      Canberra            11   23223323
      Launceston          16   24233433
      Hobart              13   23223433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    13   23124432
      Casey               30   36533434
      Mawson              42   55434565

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville          17   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            9   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs       12   (Quiet)
      Gingin              56   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            63   (Active)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   1112 1243     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active
07 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 4 January and 
is current for 4-6 Jan. On UT day 5 January geomagnetic activity 
was mostly quiet to unsettled over the Australian region and 
reached active levels for short periods of time. In the Antarctic 
region major storm levels of geomagnetic activity were also observed. 
On 6 January geomagnetic conditions are expected to become less 
disturbed. However, they may reach minor storm levels due to 
influence of the relatively large recurrent southern hemisphere 
coronal hole, which is now at the geoeffective location on the 
solar disk.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
07 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed on UT 
day 5 January predominantly in the southern hemisphere. On 6-7 
January mild depressions are expected to be observed.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jan    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      2
Jan      21
Feb      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jan   -10    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
07 Jan    -5    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
08 Jan    -5    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 1 was issued 
on 4 January and is current for 5-7 Jan. On the UT day 5 January 
in the Australian region MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted 
values and depressed by 15-20%. On 6 January similar HF conditions 
are expected, then the conditions are expected to gradually recover. 
HF users are advised to use lower than the monthly predicted 
frequencies.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 484 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:   128000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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