[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 14 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Wed Feb 15 10:30:24 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 75/13
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the
UT day 14 February with no flares. Very low levels of solar activity
is expected for the next 3 days (15-17 February) with a slight
chance of C-class flares. There are currently two numbered sunspot
regions on the visible solar disk. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in available LASCO imagery on UT day 14 February. The
solar wind speeds were near the nominal levels of 325 km/s throughout
the UT day. The IMF Bt were mostly steady around 3 nT during
the UT day. The Bz component varied between -2 nT and +2 nT.
The outlook for today 15 February is for the solar winds to remain
near the nominal levels during the early part of the UT day.
However from late 15 February, the solar winds are expected to
enhance to moderate levels in response to a recurrent positive
polarity coronal hole soon approaching geoeffective location
on the solar disk. Moderately enhanced solar wind speeds are
expected to continue from 16 to 18 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 01000011
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 1 11000011
Townsville 2 11100012
Learmonth 0 01000001
Alice Springs 0 01000001
Norfolk Island 0 00000011
Gingin 1 01100001
Camden 2 11000012
Canberra 0 00000001
Launceston 3 12110012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 01000001
Casey 6 23311011
Mawson 7 12201034
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Feb 16 Active
17 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic activity were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region on UT day 14 February. The outlook for
today 15 February is for the geomagnetic conditions to remain
initially at quiet levels and by the end of the UT day could
reach unsettled levels in response to the anticipated arrival
of co-rotating interaction region associated with the coronal
hole. On UT day 16 February, geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly between unsettled and active levels due to high
speed solar wind streams expected to emanate from the coronal
hole. There is some chance that auroras may be visible on the
local night of 16 February in Tasmania and possibly from the
coastline of Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted levels
across all regions on UT day 14 February. Sightly improved MUF
conditions are expected for today, 15 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted levels with
sporadic minor depressions scattered across the Australian regions
during UT day 14 February. The outlook for today (15 February)
is for a slightly improved MUF conditions as the approaching
coronal hole effects are expected to further enhance ionisation
levels on the first day of storming. This is usually followed
by storm-associated depressions on the subsequent days, possibly
beginning from 16 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 18100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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