[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 14 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Wed Feb 15 10:30:24 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Feb             16 Feb             17 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              76/14              75/13

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the 
UT day 14 February with no flares. Very low levels of solar activity 
is expected for the next 3 days (15-17 February) with a slight 
chance of C-class flares. There are currently two numbered sunspot 
regions on the visible solar disk. No Earth directed CMEs were 
observed in available LASCO imagery on UT day 14 February. The 
solar wind speeds were near the nominal levels of 325 km/s throughout 
the UT day. The IMF Bt were mostly steady around 3 nT during 
the UT day. The Bz component varied between -2 nT and +2 nT. 
The outlook for today 15 February is for the solar winds to remain 
near the nominal levels during the early part of the UT day. 
However from late 15 February, the solar winds are expected to 
enhance to moderate levels in response to a recurrent positive 
polarity coronal hole soon approaching geoeffective location 
on the solar disk. Moderately enhanced solar wind speeds are 
expected to continue from 16 to 18 February.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01000011
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               1   11000011
      Townsville           2   11100012
      Learmonth            0   01000001
      Alice Springs        0   01000001
      Norfolk Island       0   00000011
      Gingin               1   01100001
      Camden               2   11000012
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Launceston           3   12110012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000001
      Casey                6   23311011
      Mawson               7   12201034

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1000 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Feb    16    Active
17 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic activity were mostly at quiet levels across 
the Australian region on UT day 14 February. The outlook for 
today 15 February is for the geomagnetic conditions to remain 
initially at quiet levels and by the end of the UT day could 
reach unsettled levels in response to the anticipated arrival 
of co-rotating interaction region associated with the coronal 
hole. On UT day 16 February, geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be mostly between unsettled and active levels due to high 
speed solar wind streams expected to emanate from the coronal 
hole. There is some chance that auroras may be visible on the 
local night of 16 February in Tasmania and possibly from the 
coastline of Victoria.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Observed MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted levels 
across all regions on UT day 14 February. Sightly improved MUF 
conditions are expected for today, 15 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Feb     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      0
Feb      18
Mar      16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb    -5    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted levels with 
sporadic minor depressions scattered across the Australian regions 
during UT day 14 February. The outlook for today (15 February) 
is for a slightly improved MUF conditions as the approaching 
coronal hole effects are expected to further enhance ionisation 
levels on the first day of storming. This is usually followed 
by storm-associated depressions on the subsequent days, possibly 
beginning from 16 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 328 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:    18100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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