[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 February 17 issued 0004 UT on 09 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 9 11:04:43 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT CORRECTION
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Feb             10 Feb             11 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               72/8               73/9

COMMENT: The solar activity was at Very Low levels during the 
UT day 08 February. Very Low solar activity is expected for the 
next three days. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO 
imagery up to 08/2136UT. The solar wind speed decreased over 
the last 24 hours, ranging from 500 to 430 km/s. The IMF Bt varied 
between 4-7 nT over the UT day. North-south (Bz) component varied 
between +5/-4 nT. The Solar wind speed is expected to continue 
to decline to nominal levels as effects of the coronal hole subside.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11123212
      Cocos Island         3   11112210
      Darwin               4   11112212
      Townsville           6   11222222
      Learmonth            7   11223213
      Alice Springs        5   01123211
      Norfolk Island       4   01112221
      Gingin               7   11123213
      Camden               8   13223222
      Canberra             3   01112211
      Launceston           8   11223322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     5   00123311
      Casey               15   34432223
      Mawson              10   42222213

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2111 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Feb     5    Quiet
10 Feb     4    Quiet
11 Feb     3    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the Australian 
region on 08 February. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the 
next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Feb     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      0
Feb      18
Mar      16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Feb    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
10 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
11 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Periods of minor depressions and sporadic E observed 
in the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions 
are likely for the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 521 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:   247000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list