[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 29 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 30 09:30:22 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Aug 31 Aug 01 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 86/29 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
2674(N12E75) produced three C-class X-ray flares and several
B-class X-ray flares. The largest flare was a C2.8 peaking at
0300UT. Expect Very Low to Low solar activity for the next three
days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
C2 imagery up to 29/1448UT. Observations from ACE showed that
the solar wind stream remained between 280 km/s and 380 km/s
during the last 24 hours. A weak shock was observed from ACE
in the solar wind at 29/1547UT, when the solar wind step up from
300 to 340 km/s. Btotal remained steady at around 5 to 6 nT until
the weak shock occurred, when it step up to 9 and then again
to 14 nT. During this period Bz ranged between +3/-5 nT prior
to the weak shock, and after the shock fluctuated between +/-10
nT. Expect the solar wind to remain near nominal levels for the
UT day 30 August with an expected increase in the solar wind
speed on 31 August to near 700 km/s, induced by recurrent a coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 11111232
Cocos Island 5 11111232
Darwin 5 11111231
Townsville 7 22211232
Learmonth 7 21111332
Alice Springs 6 12111232
Norfolk Island 3 11011121
Culgoora 4 11111222
Gingin 5 11111232
Camden 4 11111222
Launceston 6 11112232
Hobart 4 11112122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug :
Casey 11 33331123
Mawson 11 22221334
Davis 12 22331234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Aug 20 Active
01 Sep 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled for the
last 24 hours. Expect similar conditions to prevail for today,
30 August. On 31 August expect an increase to Unsettled to Active
conditions with possible isolated cases of Minor Storm conditions
at higher latitudes due to the an increase in the solar wind
speed induced by a recurrent coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Possible degraded HF communication at high latitudes
on 31 August to 01 September due to Minor geomagnetic storming.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Aug 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 65% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were mostly near predicted
monthly values in the Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Australian
ionosonde stations showed isolated cases of sporadic E in the
Australian region, particularly over Hobart between 09-21UT.
Expect similar conditions to prevail over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 488 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 233000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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