[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 02 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 3 09:30:22 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Aug             04 Aug             05 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: On 2 August solar activity was very low. The returned 
active region 2655 (now its number is 2670) produced three B-class 
flares. Mostly very low levels of solar activity are expected 
for the next three UT days, 3-5 August with a chance for C-class 
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
LASCO imagery for the UT day, 2 August. The solar wind speed 
was low to moderate during the UT day, 2 August, varying in the 
range 370-440 km/s. The IMF Bt and its Bz component varied in 
the ranges 3-10 nT and +6/-5 respectively. The Bz component of 
the IMF was mostly positive during the UT day, 2 August. During 
the next 24 h the solar wind speed is expected to remain at low 
to moderate levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11112200
      Darwin               3   12112101
      Townsville           3   11112201
      Learmonth            3   11013200
      Alice Springs        2   01102101
      Norfolk Island       2   12102100
      Gingin               3   11102210
      Camden               2   11112100
      Canberra             1   10002100
      Launceston           4   11113200
      Hobart               3   10103200    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     1   00002100
      Casey                5   22212211
      Mawson               9   11112125

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              6   1112 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Aug     6    Quiet
04 Aug    25    Active
05 Aug    25    Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian 
region during the UT day, 2 August. Mostly quiet to unsettled 
conditions are expected for 3 August. During the next 2 UT days, 
4-5 August, the geomagnetic activity may increase to active levels 
due to expected arrival of the corotating interaction region 
associated with the recurrent coronal hole. Isolated periods 
with minor storm levels are probable.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
05 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected for 3 August. 
Degraded HF conditions are expected for 4-5 August due to predicted 
increase in the geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Aug     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      10
Aug      6
Sep      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug     7    Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug     9    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. MUFs in this region 
are expected to remain near monthly predicted values during the 
next three UT days, 3-5 August. Degraded HF conditions are expected 
for 4-5 August due to predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:   11.0 p/cc  Temp:   138000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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