[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 28 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Apr 29 09:30:15 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Apr             30 Apr             01 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              76/14

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 28 April, 
with no notable flares. Very low level of solar activity is expected 
for the next 3 UT days (29 April - 1 May) with a chance for C-class 
flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available 
satellite imagery on UT day 28 April. The solar wind speed continued 
to decline towards the nominal level over the last 24 hours, 
decreasing from 470 km/s at the beginning of the UT day to 430 
km/s by the end of UT day, as the effect of the coronal hole 
continued to fade. The IMF Bt was steady near 5 nT during the 
UT day. The Bz component varied between -5 nT and +3 nT, with 
some prolonged periods of southward Bz. These intervals of southward 
Bz were from 28/0345 UT to 28/0900 UT and from 28/1415 UT to 
28/2330 UT. During the next 24 hours the solar wind speed is 
expected to trend towards nominal levels as the effect of the 
coronal hole wanes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   01111112
      Cocos Island         2   1-100211
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Learmonth            5   00222222
      Alice Springs        3   01111122
      Norfolk Island       4   10111222
      Culgoora             3   01111112
      Gingin               4   00112222
      Camden               4   01212112
      Canberra             2   00111111
      Launceston           5   01222212
      Hobart               4   01222111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     4   00322110
      Casey               10   34212222
      Mawson              25   53322246

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8   2330 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Apr     7    Quiet
30 Apr     6    Quiet
01 May     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across 
the Australian region during the UT day, 28 April. The Earth 
is now under the influence of moderate solar wind. Mostly quiet 
and at times unsettled conditions are expected for the UT days 
29 April - 1 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values in the 
low and mid latitude regions on the UT day 28 April. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days, 29 April - 1 
May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Apr    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      11
Apr      14
May      14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Apr    15    Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr    15    Near predicted monthly values
01 May    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: For the UT day, 28 April, MUFs were mostly near monthly 
predicted levels over the Australian region. The outlook for 
the next three UT days (29 April - 1 May) is for near monthly 
predicted MUF levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:41%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 465 km/sec  Density:   10.3 p/cc  Temp:   336000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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