[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 07 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Apr 8 09:30:17 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Very low Very low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
the largest event being a C4.3 flare from region 2645 (S09W88),
peaking at 1949/07 UT. This region is about to depart the disk,
but still has a small potential for M-class flares. No CMEs were
observed. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate on
8-Apr and very low for 9-10 Apr. The solar wind speed dipped
to ~410 km/s, currently ~440 km/s. IMF total strength rose to
9 nT. The Bz component dipped to -8 nT around 22 UT, but for
most of the day varied from -5 to +3 nT. A bump up in solar wind
speed speed is likely on 9-Apr due to a northern hemisphere coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 21221123
Cocos Island 3 111-----
Darwin 7 22221123
Townsville 7 22221123
Learmonth 6 21221123
Alice Springs 4 11120122
Norfolk Island 4 11220022
Culgoora 4 11220022
Gingin 7 21220133
Camden 6 21221123
Canberra 4 1-220022
Launceston 9 22331123
Hobart 5 11221122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
Macquarie Island 5 11330012
Casey 12 34420123
Mawson 37 43241176
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9 1111 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Apr 20 Active
10 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet across the Australian
region on 7-Apr. Quiet conditions are expected in Australia on
8 Apr, with more disturbed conditions possible on 9-10 Apr due
to a northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Apr 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate daytime MUF depressions were observed
at times across Australia on 7-Apr. In Tasmania, spread-F was
observed 09-20 UT. Sporadic-E observed in Darwin around 22 UT.
MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 482 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 209000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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