[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 28 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 29 09:30:23 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Sep             30 Sep             01 Oct
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              83/24              78/17

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT 
day, 28 September. Few B-class flares were observed during the 
last 24 hours. The two day outlook (29-30 September) is for very 
low solar activity with chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The 
solar wind speeds were at very high levels throughout the UT 
day, ranging between 600 km/s and 800 km/s. The current solar 
wind speed (28/2300 UT) is around 700 km/s. These enhanced in 
the solar wind speeds are due to the high speed streams emanating 
from a large positive polarity coronal hole. The north south 
component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated 
between -7 and +7 nT, with no prolonged periods of significant 
southward Bz. Bt had been steady near 7 nT for most of the UT 
day. The two day outlook (29-30 September) is for the solar winds 
to remain at these enhanced levels as the coronal effects are 
expected to persist for few more days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      23   33255343
      Cocos Island        17   33234442
      Darwin              18   33245332
      Townsville          22   33255333
      Learmonth           26   33255452
      Alice Springs       21   33255332
      Norfolk Island      18   33254233
      Gingin              30   33255553
      Camden              22   33255333
      Canberra            17   33244333
      Launceston          25   33255443
      Hobart              23   33255433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    54   44366753
      Casey               27   45543343
      Mawson              74   45654586

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           17   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        8   (Quiet)
      Gingin              85   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            97   (Minor storm)
      

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             45                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             32   5445 4633     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Sep    45    Minor Storm
30 Sep    40    Minor Storm
01 Oct    30    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity over the Australian region 
reached minor storm levels on UT day 28 September. The Australian 
region Dst index dipped to a low of -68 nT at near 28/0200 UT. 
These fluctuations in geomagnetic conditions are associated with 
very strong solar wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s emanating 
from a large positive polarity coronal hole now at geoeffective 
location on the solar disk . The two day outlook (29-30 September) 
is for the geomagnetic activity to reach minor storm levels and 
at times even reach major storm levels associated with the persisting 
very strong solar wind speeds from the coronal hole. The storm 
intensities are expected to be slightly stronger than that observed 
in the previous two rotation (previous rotation Ap was 32) associated 
with this coronal hole because the earth-sun coupling efficiency 
is highest during the equinox periods. Thus there is strong chance 
that aurora may be visible on the local nights of 29 September 
from Tasmania and some parts of Victoria, Australia.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Fair           Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Normal         Fair-poor      Poor
30 Sep      Normal         Fair-poor      Poor
01 Oct      Normal         Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Observed MUF's were near predicted monthly values over 
the equatorial regions and strongly depressed in the mid and 
high latitudes regions. Similar HF conditions are expected today, 
29 September.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Sep     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      29
Sep      35
Oct      34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Sep     0    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
30 Sep     5    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Oct     3    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUF's were strongly depressed over most Australian 
regions throughout the UT day 28 September. These depression 
are associated with the observed minor storm conditions driven 
by a very large positive polarity coronal hole. Similar MUF depressions 
are expected for the next three days (29 September to 1 October) 
as active conditions associated with the coronal hole are expected 
to persist for a few more days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 510 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:   341000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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