[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 September 16 issued 2346 UT on 24 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sun Sep 25 09:46:03 EST 2016

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep:  85/27

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Sep             26 Sep             27 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    87/30              88/32              85/27

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours 
with region 2597 (S17W05) the source of the largest event, a 
B6.9 flare at 1816UT. There were no earth directed CME's observed 
in the available imagery. The solar wind speed continued to decline 
from ~400km/s at 00UT to be 370km/s at the time of this report. 
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was northward from 
00UT to 17UT after which Bz has undergone a sustained southward 
period, reaching a maximum of -6.8nT at the time of this report. 
Solar wind speed is expected to remain at ambient levels for 
the next 24 hours. An increase in solar wind speed is expected 
on 26Sep due to a recurrent high speed solar wind stream from 
an equatorial located positive polarity coronal hole. Solar activity 
is expected to be Very Low over the next 3 days with a small 
chance of a weak C class flare.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11101122
      Cocos Island         3   11101112
      Darwin               3   11111012
      Townsville           5   22111122
      Learmonth            5   21111123
      Alice Springs        3   11101022
      Norfolk Island       1   11000011
      Gingin               5   11101133
      Camden               3   11101022
      Canberra             1   00100012
      Launceston           4   11211122
      Hobart               -   --------    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000011
      Casey               11   23420133
      Mawson              14   11100046

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0010 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Sep    19    Active
27 Sep    11    Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet 
to Unsettled conditions are expected for 25Sep. Unsettled conditions 
with possible Active periods on 26Sep due to anticipated coronal 
hole effects and mostly Unsettled conditions for 27Sep.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Observed MUF's near predicted monthly values over the 
last 24 hours. Similar conditions expected over the next 24 hours, 
with possible depressed MUFs for high to mid latitudes 26-27Sep 
due to increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Sep    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      29
Sep      35
Oct      34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep    25    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUF's near predicted monthly values for most 
regions over the last 24 hours with notable depressions at times 
for Equatorial regions and variable support for Northern AUS 
regions. MUFs expected to be near monthly predicted values for 
25Sep. Occasional MUF depressions of 10%-30% for Southern AUS/NZ 
regions possible for 26Sep-27Sep and disturbed ionospheric support 
for Antarctic regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.