[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 17 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 18 09:30:26 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep: Very low
Flares: B class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 17 September
UT. There is a small chance of a weak C class flare during the
next 2 days. AR 2592 produced the largest flare of the day, a
B 4.0 event peaking at 06:05 UT. The bright CME first observed
leaving the western limb during 11 UT, 17 September is a far
side event. Coronal Hole 761 may become geoeffective during 19
September. The solar wind speed varied between about 300 km/s
and 340 km/s during 17 September. The magnitude of the IMF varied
between about 4 nT and 8 nT, and the Bz component varied between
about -2 nT and +5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 20021000
Darwin 3 21121001
Townsville 3 21021012
Learmonth 2 21021000
Alice Springs 2 20021000
Norfolk Island 1 10020000
Gingin 1 20010000
Camden 2 11021001
Canberra 0 10010000
Launceston 2 20021000
Hobart 1 10020000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 7 43220000
Mawson 5 42010001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Sep 4 Quiet
19 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
20 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 17 September
UT. The maximum planetary magnetic activity index Kp was 2 during
00-03 UT. Maximum Australian region K indices reached 2 during
the same interval. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be
quiet today, 18 September UT. They may reach minor storm levels
during 19 September due to the effects of a positive polarity
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near normal
in both hemispheres during 17 September UT. Conditions are expected
to be similar today, 18 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Sep 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near normal
in the Australian region during 17 September UT. Conditions are
expected to be similar today, 18 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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