[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 11 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 12 09:30:27 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Sep             13 Sep             14 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    86/29              82/23              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 11 September. 
Expect solar activity to be Very Low to Low for the next three 
days with a slight chance of an M-class flare which can be produced 
by AR2585 (now at N08W76). No Earthward directed CMEs were observed 
in available SOHO/LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed was varying 
in the range 340-380 km/s, slowly decreasing on average, currently 
the speed is around 340 km/s. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain steady in the vicinity of its nominal levels during 
the next 24 hours. At the end of 12 September its speed may start 
increasing. The interplanetary magnetic field was steady up to 
approximately 1100 UT; Bt and Bz were fluctuating in the ranges 
3-4 nT and -3/+3 nT, respectively. Then Bt increased up to 6 
nT and Bz became negative, its minimum value was -5 nT. Currently 
Bt is 7 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   10012200
      Cocos Island         1   10101000
      Darwin               2   10102201
      Townsville           4   11112211
      Learmonth            2   00102200
      Alice Springs        2   01002201
      Norfolk Island       1   00011100
      Gingin               2   01012210
      Camden               3   10012211
      Canberra             2   00012200
      Launceston           4   10113211
      Hobart               2   10012200    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     4   00122300
      Casey                7   23212212
      Mawson              12   31101353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1220 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Sep     7    Quiet
13 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over Australia for 
the UT day, 11 September. In the Antarctic region isolated Unsettled 
to Minor Storm periods were also observed. For the next UT day, 
12 September, geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet with 
possible isolated Unsettled periods. For 13-14 September Geomagnetic 
activity can increase up to Unsettled levels due to weak coronal 
hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: For the next 3 UT days, 12-14 September, normal HF conditions 
are expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Sep    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.     
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      29
Sep      35
Oct      34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%
13 Sep    35    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%

COMMENT: Near predicted monthly MUFs were observed in the Australian 
region during the UT day, 11 September. Near predicted monthly 
values of MUFs are expected in the Australian/NZ regions during 
the next 3 UT days, 12-14 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    7.5 p/cc  Temp:   371000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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