[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 08 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 9 09:30:18 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Sep             10 Sep             11 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              92/37

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 08 September. 
Expect solar activity to be Very Low to Low for the next three 
days with a slight chance of an M-class flare which can be produced 
by AR2585 (now at N08W38). No Earthward directed CMEs were observed 
in available SOHO/LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed was varying 
in the range 440-520 km/s, slowly decreasing on average, currently 
around 450 km/s. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease 
slowly to its nominal levels during the next 24 hours. The Bz 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 
-5/+4 nT during the last 24 hours with Bt varying between 5 nT 
and 7 n; currently Bt is 5 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22232211
      Cocos Island         4   22221110
      Darwin               7   23232111
      Townsville           9   22333212
      Learmonth            8   23232221
      Alice Springs        6   22232111
      Norfolk Island       7   2-232112
      Gingin               7   22232221
      Camden               8   22233212
      Canberra             8   22233211
      Launceston          12   23343212
      Hobart               9   22243211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    24   24364421
      Casey               14   44432112
      Mawson              31   55433362

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           70   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   3313 4322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Sep    10    Quiet
10 Sep     8    Quiet
11 Sep     8    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels 
over Australia for the UT day, 08 September. In the Antarctic 
region isolated Active to Minor Storm periods were also observed. 
For the next UT day, 9 September, geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be Quiet with possible isolated Unsettled periods at higher 
latitudes due to an elevated solar wind speed. Quiet conditions 
are expected over Australia for 10-11 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected. Mild depressions 
may be observed today due to minor geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Sep    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.  
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      29
Sep      35
Oct      34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%
10 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Near predicted monthly MUFs to mild depressions were 
observed in the Australian region during the UT day, 08 September. 
Near predicted monthly values of MUFs are expected in the Australian/NZ 
regions during the next 3 UT days, 09-11 September.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 475 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   343000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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