[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 02 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 3 09:30:22 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Sep             04 Sep             05 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 02 September. 
Note AR2585 continues to produce surges and subflares observed 
in H-alpha imagery. Noise storm in progress on 245 MHz. Weak 
broadband continuum in progress on solar radio spectrograph. 
Expect solar activity to be Low for the next three days with 
a 15% chance of an M-class flare. Based on limited SOHO imagery 
no Earthward bound CME expected. Solar wind speed increased from 
550 to just over 700 km/s during the last 24 hours due a large 
coronal hole extending from the northern pole to the lower latitudes 
of the Sun. The solar wind is expected to remain elevated for 
the next 2-3 days. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field ranged between +/-8 nT during the last 24 hours with a 
Bt varying between 6 and 10 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      23   45335323
      Cocos Island        14   34224313
      Darwin              22   35335323
      Townsville          23   45335323
      Learmonth           25   45335324
      Alice Springs       22   35335323
      Norfolk Island      18   45233323
      Gingin              25   44335434
      Camden              21   45334323
      Canberra            21   45334323
      Launceston          25   45335423
      Hobart              25   45335423    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    38   55256533
      Casey               20   34444323
      Mawson              57   66655436

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           19   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              94   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            65   (Active)
      Melbourne          104   (Major storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        26
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        29
           Planetary             32   4454 4355     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active
04 Sep    12    Unsettled
05 Sep    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Minor Storm levels 
over Australia for the UT day, 02 September. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to remain Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active 
periods at higher latitudes for the next three days due to an 
elevated solar wind speed associated with a recurrent coronal 
hole. The Antarctic region may have isolated periods of Minor 
Storm conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF 
conditions may be observed today due to moderate geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Sep    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      29
Sep      35
Oct      34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
04 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
05 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Near predicted monthly value MUFs were observed in the 
Australian region during the UT day, 02 September. Mild to Moderate 
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be 
observed in the Australian/NZ regions today, 03 September, with 
mild depressions possible on the following two days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 475 km/sec  Density:    7.8 p/cc  Temp:   290000 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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