[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 27 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 28 10:30:25 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 27 October.
GONG H-alpha imagery shows an emerging flux region at N07E04,
expect possible subflaring from this region with a slight chance
of C-class X-ray flares. Solar activity is expected to remain
Very Low for the next three days. No Earthward bound CMEs observed
with available SOHO imagery. DSCOVR plots show the solar wind
speed decreasing from 700km/s to 540km/s over the last 24 hours.
Over this period the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has
been oriented away from the Sun and the B total field varied
between 5 and 6 nT. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between
+5/-6 nT with periods of prolong negative Bz. The large recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole remains geoeffective and the solar
wind is expected to remain elevated for the next two days most
likely ranging between 500-600 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 13 32333332
Cocos Island 12 2223342-
Darwin 12 3233332-
Townsville 16 33343333
Learmonth 16 2234343-
Alice Springs 13 3233333-
Norfolk Island 13 33332332
Culgoora 11 22333322
Gingin 16 2233443-
Camden 14 33342332
Canberra 10 22332322
Launceston 21 33444433
Hobart 15 333431-3
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Oct :
Macquarie Island 37 3455554-
Casey 20 3543233-
Mawson 74 6544585-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 31
Planetary 44 5546 5554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 25 Unsettled to Active
29 Oct 20 Unsettled to Active
30 Oct 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 27 October
and is current for 28-29 Oct. Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled
to Active in Australian region with isolated cases of Minor and
Major Storm levels at higher latitudes over the UT day, 27 October.
Dst index indicate substorming in progress, dipping to ~-65nT
at times. Expect Unsettled to Active conditions in the Australian
region with isolated cases of Minor Storm levels at higher latitudes
for the next two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
29 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly depressed to depressed MUFs were observed for
the UT day, 27 October. Expect these conditions to prevail for
the next couple days with some degradation in HF communication.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 60% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct -10 10 to 40% below predicted monthly values
29 Oct -10 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
30 Oct 10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 49 was issued on 27 October
and is current for 28-30 Oct. Mildly depressed to depressed MUFs
were observed for the UT day, 27 October, in the Aus/NZ region.
Current depressions are associated with low levels of ionising
radiation and geomagnetic activity resulting in ionospheric storming.
Expect these conditions to prevail for the next three days with
some degradation in HF communication. Note there were periods
of sporadic E observed in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 702 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 926000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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