[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 20 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 21 10:30:26 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 450 to 400 km/s during
this period. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, mostly varied
between +/-3nT and Bt stayed around 4 nT on 20 October (UT day).
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the
next three days (21, 22 and 23 October) with some chance of C-class
activity. A positive polarity coronal hole is expected to take
a geoeffective position from late on 22 October. This may result
in strengthening of solar wind stream from that time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 21001011
Cocos Island 1 10100010
Darwin 2 21000012
Townsville 2 21001012
Learmonth 2 21001010
Alice Springs 1 21000001
Norfolk Island 1 10000011
Culgoora 7 22122223
Camden 2 10100021
Canberra 1 10000021
Launceston 2 20101021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 10000020
Casey 7 32311022
Mawson 9 22201052
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 4 Quiet
22 Oct 12 Quiet to Active
23 Oct 20 Unsettled to minor storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at Quiet levels on
most locations with some Unsettled periods on high latitudes
today (UT day 20 October). Geomagnetic activity is expected to
be mostly at Quiet levels through 21 October and first half of
22 October. Due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent coronal hole, geomagnetic activity may rise
to Unsettled and Active levels late on 22 October and Unsettled
to Minor Storm levels on 23 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Oct Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mainly due to low levels of ionising radiation, minor
to moderate MUF depressions were observed today (UT day 20 October).
Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 21 October and most
parts of 22 October. Minor to significant MUF depressions may
be expected on 23 October due to very low levels of ionising
radiation and expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on
this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct 3 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
23 Oct -10 10 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mainly due to low levels of ionising radiation, minor
to moderate MUF depressions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions
today (UT day 20 October). Nearly similar conditions may be expected
on 21 October and most parts of 22 October. Minor to significant
MUF depressions may be expected in this region on 23 October
due to very low levels of ionising radiation and expected rise
in geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 507 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 403000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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