[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 09 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 10 10:30:24 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Oct             11 Oct             12 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
A filament lift-off from the northeast quadrant and a partial 
halo observed in LASCO imagery are under analysis. Solar activity 
is expected to be low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed 
has drifted down from ~400 to ~370 km/s. The IMF total strength 
peaked rose from 4 to 7 nT. The Bz component varied between +/-5 
nT, staying mostly southward during 00-16 UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11112111
      Cocos Island         3   11012120
      Darwin               4   11112112
      Townsville           4   11112112
      Learmonth            4   11013120
      Alice Springs        4   10113111
      Norfolk Island       1   10001010
      Gingin               4   10113120
      Camden               3   11112111
      Canberra             2   00112011
      Launceston           6   11223112
      Hobart               4   01113111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     6   01134200
      Casey                6   23211122
      Mawson              17   52212352

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2422 1111


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet in the Australian 
region on 9-Oct, with a brief unsettled period from 12-15 UT. 
Brief active to storm-level periods were observed in the Antarctic. 
Some unsettled periods are possible over the next 3 days due 
to increased IMF strength and solar wind proton density.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Oct    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      30
Oct      30
Nov      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values
11 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across 
the Australian region on 9-Oct, with daytime enhancements in 
equatorial regions. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted 
values for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.1E+08 (normal fluence)
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 432 km/sec  Density:    8.0 p/cc  Temp:   379000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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