[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 06 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 7 10:30:39 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Oct             08 Oct             09 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   102/50             102/50             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected 
to be low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed continued 
to decline, from 480 km/s to around 450 km/s currently. The IMF 
total strength peaked around 7 nT, currently 3 nT. The Bz component 
varied between +/-4 nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12200221
      Cocos Island         2   01100221
      Darwin               4   12100311
      Townsville           5   22200222
      Learmonth            5   22200321
      Alice Springs        5   11200322
      Norfolk Island       2   21100111
      Culgoora             7   22222222
      Gingin               3   22100220
      Camden               4   12200222
      Canberra             2   11100211
      Launceston           6   22201322
      Hobart               4   12200222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     3   11000311
      Casey               10   34310222
      Mawson              14   23211353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            41   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   4432 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Oct     5    Quiet
08 Oct     5    Quiet
09 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian region 
on 6-Oct, with brief active to minor storm periods observed in 
the Antarctic. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail in Australia 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor
08 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Oct    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      30
Oct      30
Nov      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed across 
the Australian region on 6-Oct. Similar conditions are likely 
on 7-Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 506 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:   303000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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