[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 November 16 issued 2333 UT on 15 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 16 10:33:14 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 79/19
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 15 November.
Expect Very Low solar activity for the next three days. SOHO
LASCO C2 imagery shows no earthward directed CMEs based on available
imagery ending at 15/1936UT. However, an erupting filament was
observed in both GONG H-alpha and SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning
at approximately 15/1428UT but no associated CME was observed
in SOHO LASCO images. The filament appeared to erupt towards
the North East. Solar wind speed decreased from 665km/s to 480km/s
over the last 24 hours and is currently ~500km/s. The Bz component
of the IMF fluctuated between +/-4nT during this period with
the total B field near steady ranging from 3-5nT. Solar wind
speed is expected to continue to gradually decline over the next
24 hours to nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Cocos Island 2 11112100
Darwin 3 21112101
Townsville 5 11213211
Learmonth 7 22123212
Alice Springs 3 11112101
Norfolk Island 3 11112111
Gingin 5 21122212
Camden 6 12223111
Canberra 3 11112101
Launceston 7 22223212
Hobart 7 222231--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Nov :
Macquarie Island 5 22123100
Casey 20 45443212
Mawson 23 44533334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1223 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 6 Quiet
17 Nov 4 Quiet
18 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled for the
UT day, 15 November. Expect the geomagnetic conditions to gradually
return to Quiet levels over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable MUFs were observed over the last 24 hours ranging
from notable depressions to near predicted monthly values. The
northern hemisphere currently shows mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs. The southern hemisphere had depressed MUFs. Expect near
predicted MUFs with isolated cases of mild depressions for the
UT day, 16 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov -23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
18 Nov 26 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions observed for all regions over
the last 24 hours. Expect near predicted MUFs with isolated cases
of mild depressions in the AUS/NZ region for the UT day, 16 November.
Noted isolated cases of sporadic E throughout the Australian
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 622 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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