[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 November 16 issued 2351 UT on 07 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 8 10:51:34 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
region 2605 (N08W74) the source of a B1.5 event at 0502UT. DSCOVR
plots show that over the last 24 hours the solar wind speed was
varying in the range 290-330 km/s, currently at 311 km/s. The
Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -2.6/+5 nT. Analysis
of the filament that lifted off towards the northwest quadrant
on 05Nov is likely to produce a glancing blow effect producing
only a slight increase in solar wind speed, with arrival time
in the latter half of the UT day 08Nov. Solar wind speed is expected
to gradually increase on 09Nov-10Nov due to the influence of
a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent southern-hemisphere
located negative polarity coronal hole. Solar activity is expected
to remain Very Low for the next three days with the chance of
C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11212100
Cocos Island 2 11211100
Darwin 4 11212201
Townsville 4 21222200
Learmonth 5 21222201
Alice Springs 4 11222200
Norfolk Island 3 20211101
Culgoora 9 2332222-
Gingin 2 10211100
Camden 3 11212100
Canberra 2 10211100
Launceston 4 11222101
Hobart 2 01211100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 7 23331001
Mawson 6 42111102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0020 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 40 Quiet to Minor Storm
09 Nov 25 Active
10 Nov 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 6 November
and is current for 8 Nov only. Quiet conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Forecast for 08Nov is Quiet to Minor Storm
with the expected arrival in the latter half of the UT day of
a CME from a filament that lifted off the sun on 05Nov. On 09Nov
the solar wind speed is expected to gradually increase due to
the onset of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent
southern-hemisphere located negative polarity coronal hole resulting
in Active to Minor Storm conditions for 09Nov-10Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
09 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
10 Nov Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal MUFs were observed over the last 24 hours.
Similar conditions are expected for most of 08Nov with possible
degraded HF conditions beginning late in the UT day due to expected
increase in geomagnetic activity. Further geomagnetic activity
is expected 09Nov-10Nov due to coronal hole effects resulting
in periods of depressed MUFs for mid latitudes and disturbed
conditions for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
10 Nov -10 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 52 was issued
on 6 November and is current for 8-9 Nov. Observed MUF's were
at predicted monthly values over the last 24 hours, with some
notable depressed periods for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions.
Possible increase in geomagnetic activity in the latter half
of the UT day for 08Nov may result in periods of enhanced MUFs
for low latitude stations and depressed ionospheric support for
mid to high latitudes. Continued geomagnetic activity over 09Nov-10Nov
due to coronal hole effects is expected to result in MUF depressions
of ~20% for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 318 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 15600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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