[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 12 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 13 09:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 May 14 May 15 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 97/44 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 12 May.
No SOHO images are available for 10-12 May. However, Learmonth
Solar Observatory has reported three erupting filaments for 11
May and one erupting filament for 12 May. The first was a 15
degree filament erupting at 11/0211-0306UT centred at N16W29.
The second was a 11 degree filament erupting at 11/0411-0456UT
centred at N09W37. The third was a 16 degree filament erupting
at 11/0701-0736UT centred at N04W30. The fourth was a 7 degree
filament erupting at 12/1843-2015 centred at N10W50. All four
filaments were in geoeffective locations and have the potential
to be geoeffective, pending further analysis when SOHO C2/C3
imagery becomes available. Solar activity is expected to remain
at Very Low levels during the next three days with a slight chance
of isolated C-class flares. The solar wind stream decreased from
~~420 km/s to near 380 km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bt was
gradually increasing from 3 to 5 nT. The Bz component of IMF
varied between +1/-3 nT during the same period. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain at nominal levels for the next 3
days, then at the end of the 3rd day it is expected to start
increasing due to a coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Cocos Island 1 12000000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 11110002
Learmonth 2 12111001
Alice Springs 1 11100000
Norfolk Island 1 21010000
Culgoora 7 222-2222
Gingin 2 21111001
Camden 2 11111001
Canberra 1 11010001
Melbourne 2 11111001
Launceston 2 11121001
Hobart 2 11111001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
Macquarie Island 1 11110000
Casey 4 23211001
Mawson 16 43112054
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3200 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 May 4 Quiet
14 May 4 Quiet
15 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity on 12 May was Quiet. Expect mostly
Quiet conditions for UT days 13-15 May. However, at the end of
the UT day, 15 May, expect activity will increase to Unsettled
with isolated periods of Active levels for Australian region
and possible isolated periods of Minor Storm levels at higher
latitudes due to a coronal hole extending from the north pole
to the equatorial region.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal
14 May Normal Normal Normal
15 May Normal Normal Normal-poor
COMMENT: Expect near normal HF conditions for the next three
days with possible periods of minor to mild depressions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 May 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 May 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 May 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 May 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Near predicted to mildly depressed conditions were observed
in the Australian/NZ regions during the UT day of 12 May. Expect
near predicted MUFs for the next three days with possible periods
of minor to mild depressions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:38%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 481 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 140000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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