[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 03 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 4 09:30:25 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity Very low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the last
24 hours. Solar wind stream has weakened during this time. Solar
wind speed decreased from 570 to nearly 450 km/s today. The Bz
component of IMF varied between +/-4 nT during most parts of
the UT day today. Solar activity may be expected to stay at very
low levels on 4 May, and at low levels on 5 and 6 May. Region
2529 (N10) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return
around 4 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet to Unsettled,
isolated Active periods observed on high latitude
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 7 23221221
Cocos Island 6 22111321
Darwin 7 23221221
Townsville 6 23221210
Learmonth 6 22221222
Alice Springs 7 23221221
Norfolk Island 7 24221111
Gingin 8 22222322
Camden 8 23232211
Canberra - --------
Launceston 13 34342221
Hobart 10 24332211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 May :
Macquarie Island 14 34442210
Casey 10 32232322
Mawson 34 63432446
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Melbourne 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 31 5623 3354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
05 May 5 Quiet
06 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at Quiet to Unsettled
levels on 3 May. Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
may be expected for the next three days (4, 5 and 6 May) with
some possibility of Unsettled periods on 4 and 6 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal
05 May Normal Normal Normal
06 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 3 May with some
periods of minor to mild depressions. Nearly similar HF conditions
on 4 May and mostly normal conditions on 5 and 6 May may be expected.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May 40 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 45 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal in the Aus/NZ regions
on 3 May with some periods of minor to mild depressions. Nearly
similar HF conditions on 4 May and mostly normal conditions on
5 and 6 May may be expected in this region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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