[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 30 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 31 10:30:30 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: Very low
Flares: B class flare.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 30 Mar UT and
it is expected to remain very low during the next 2 days. AR
2526 is the only significant sunspot group on the visible solar
disk. Coronal Hole (CH) 725 is located near the equator and is
rotating through the Western Hemisphere. A Corotating Interaction
Region (CIR) ahead of fast wind emanating from CH 725 may impact
Earth during 2-3 April. CH 726 is located in the NE quadrant.
The Earth is under the influence of fast wind emanating from
CH 724 which is rotating beyond the western limb. The solar wind
speed varied between about 500-600 km/s during 30 Mar and has
been trending downwards. The solar wind speed is presently about
500 km/s, and will likely decrease further during 31 Mar. The
magnitude of the IMF has been about 5-6 nT and the Bz component
fluctuated mostly between -4 nT and +4 nT during 31 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 21123221
Cocos Island 4 11113210
Darwin 6 21223211
Townsville 8 31123222
Learmonth 8 22123322
Alice Springs 6 21123221
Norfolk Island 5 21122121
Culgoora 7 21123222
Gingin 8 22113322
Camden 6 21123221
Canberra 4 20122121
Launceston 9 22233222
Hobart 7 21223221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
Macquarie Island 13 21145221
Casey 14 34432222
Mawson 36 54333373
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Melbourne 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12 3423 3311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Apr 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled in the
Australian region during 30 Mar UT. The planetary Kp index reached
4 during 12-15 UT due to the influence of fast solar wind. Geomagnetic
conditions are are expected to be mostly quiet with unsettled
intervals before the arrival of a CIR ahead of fast wind emanating
from CH 725. A minor storm (G1) is likely during 2-3 April.
Conditions may reach the G2 level briefly.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be mildly depressed in the Northern Hemisphere, and near predicted
monthly values and the Southern Hemisphere, during 31 Mar to
01 Apr UT, becoming depressed during 02-03 Apr due to minor
geomagnetic storming.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
01 Apr 55 Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be near predicted monthly values during 31 Mar to 01 Apr UT.
Conditions may become depressed during 02-03 Apr due to minor
geomagnetic storming.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 522 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 151000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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