[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 25 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 26 10:30:28 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Mar             27 Mar             28 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    86/29              88/32              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 25 March. There are 
two active regions on the solar disc, 2526(S04E65) and 2524(N15W38). 
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next 3 days 
with a slight chance of C-class flares. Yesterday's erupting 
filament does not appear to be geoeffective, available LASCO 
C2/C3 imagery showed no Earthward CMEs between 24/0000UT and 
25/1436UT. Solar wind stream showed a steady decrease from 550 
to 420 km/s with and gradual decrease in temperature and steady 
density of 1-4 particles per cubic cm. The IMF Bz component was 
positive on average and varied between +/-3nT over the same period. 
The IMF Bt remain around 4 to 5nT. Expect the solar wind to remain 
around 400 km/s over the next 24 hours. Expect an increase in 
the solar wind late on 27 March based on GOES SXI imagery showing 
a recurrent coronal extending from the northern pole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21111100
      Cocos Island         2   11111100
      Darwin               3   21111200
      Townsville           5   22122211
      Learmonth            3   22111200
      Norfolk Island       2   21011001
      Culgoora             3   21111101
      Gingin               4   32111200
      Canberra             2   21111100
      Launceston           5   32221101
      Hobart               2   21111100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     2   22011000
      Casey                9   34321201
      Mawson              16   53232233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           63   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   3221 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Mar     6    Quiet
27 Mar    14    Unsettled to Active
28 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Mostly Quiet over Australian 
region. The Antarctic region ranged from Active to Quiet. Expect 
similar conditions until late on the 27 March when conditions 
are expect to reach Active levels due to a recurrent coronal 
hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Mar    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      64
Mar      50
Apr      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values observed in the 
Australian region on 25 March. Expect near predicted monthly 
values for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 456 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list