[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 14 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 15 10:30:28 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Mar             16 Mar             17 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity has been at very low levels over the 
last 24 hours. No significant solar flare was observed during 
this period. Solar wind speed stayed between 350 and 400 km/s 
by 1600 UT and then, as per the previous anticipations, the speed 
showed gradual increase to around 600 km/s by 2300UT. It was 
due to the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent 
coronal hole. The IMF Bz component stayed close to normal value 
by 1600 UT and then showed fluctuations, mostly between +/-12nT. 
The solar stream is expected to remain strong on 15 and most 
parts of 16 March due to the coronal hole effect. Very low levels 
of solar activity, with some possibility of isolated C class 
activity, may be expected from 15 to 17 March.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   11101244
      Cocos Island         8   11110343
      Darwin               9   11111343
      Townsville          11   21111344
      Learmonth           10   11101344
      Norfolk Island       6   00101243
      Culgoora             7   11101234
      Gingin               8   11000244
      Camden               3   11------
      Canberra             6   10001234
      Launceston           8   11111234
      Hobart               7   01101234    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     4   00211023
      Casey               10   12321134
      Mawson              19   42222236

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           68   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   0101 2101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Mar    30    Active to Minor Storm
16 Mar    25    Active down to unsettled
17 Mar    15    Unsettled then quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 13 March and 
is current for 14-16 Mar. Geomagnetic activity increased to active 
levels during late hours on 14 March due to the arrival of a 
high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. This 
coronal hole effect may result in geomagnetic activity rising 
up to minor storm levels on 15 and at times on 16 March. Mostly 
Active declining to Unsettled conditions are likely on 16 March. 
Activity may further decline from Unsettled to Quiet levels on 
17 March. In the IPS magnetometer data for 14 Mar, a weak (11nT) 
impulse was observed at 1716UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor
16 Mar      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor
17 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the last 
24 hours. Minor to significant degradations in HF conditions 
and depressions in MUFs may be observed on 15 and 16 March in 
response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity. HF conditions 
may gradually return to mostly normal levels by 17 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Mar    57

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      64
Mar      50
Apr      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Mar    30    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
16 Mar    40    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
17 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed in the Aus/NZ regions 
during the last 24 hours. Minor to significant degradations in 
HF conditions and depressions in MUFs may be observed in this 
region on 15 and 16 March in response to anticipated elevated 
geomagnetic activity. HF conditions may gradually return to mostly 
normal levels by 17 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 426 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    64800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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