[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 29 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 1 10:30:26 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Feb: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 29 Feb, with no C-class flares. There are currently three
numbered Earth facing sunspot regions on the solar disk. The
2-day outlook (1-2 March) is for very low solar activity with
some chance of smaller C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the last 24 hours. The solar wind has gradually
declined from nearly 380 km/s to almost 300 km/s during the past
24 hrs. The earth is currently under the influence of a co-rotating
interaction regions (CIR) associated with a northern hemisphere
coronal hole. The high speed streams following the CIR is expected
to elevate solar winds to moderate levels over the next 48 hours
(1-2 March). The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -5
nT and 7 nT. Bt was between 5-10 nT, with peak magnitude near
29/2000 UT coinciding with the arrival of the CIR.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 10111111
Cocos Island 1 11010100
Darwin 2 11111101
Townsville 3 11112111
Learmonth 2 20011101
Norfolk Island 2 10011012
Culgoora 4 2-201112
Gingin 2 20012001
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 1 10011001
Melbourne 2 10112001
Launceston 4 11112121
Hobart 2 10112001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 10001000
Casey 5 22322001
Mawson 6 31122103
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1021 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 18 Active
02 Mar 12 Unsettled
03 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 28 February
and is current for 29 Feb to 1 Mar. The geomagnetic conditions
was quiet during the last 24 hours (29 Feb). The outlook for
UT day 1 March is for unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions
and at times possibly reaching minor storm levels. These conditions
are forecasted due to expected moderately high solar wind speeds
associated with high speed streams emanating a Northern Hemisphere
coronal hole now taking geoeffective position on the solar disk.
Minor storms could occur on UT day 1 March if IMF Bz remained
strongly southward for prolonged periods. Consequently, there
is a small chance that aurora may be visible from high magnetic
latitudes regions of Australia, including Tasmania and some parts
of Victoria. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to return to
mostly unsettled levels on UT day 2 March as the effects of the
coronal hole begins to wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 29 Feb were slightly above
the predicted monthly values. Similar conditions are expected
for UT day 1 March in the mid and low latitudes regions. The
high latitude regions could experience MUF depressions late on
the UT day 1 March associated with forecasted active geomagnetic
conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Feb 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 57
Mar 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
02 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
03 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUF values were observed
in the Australian region on 29-Feb. Near monthly predicted values
are expected for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 59500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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