[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 29 09:30:24 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jun             30 Jun             01 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Probable
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day 28 June. 
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days 
with a slight chance for C-class flares. No sunspots are visible 
on the solar disk at this time. No Earthward directed CMEs noted 
on LASCO imagery. Over the last 24 hours the solar wind speed 
decreased gradually to the current ~400km/s. The total IMF strength 
was near steady ranging from 4-6 nT during the last 24 hours. 
The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/-5nT. Expect the 
solar wind speed to remain at nominal levels day 1, 29 June. 
On 30 June expect the solar wind to increase due to a northern 
coronal hole becoming geoeffective.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21122120
      Cocos Island         3   21111110
      Darwin               3   21111111
      Townsville           4   22121111
      Learmonth            3   11121120
      Alice Springs        3   22111110
      Norfolk Island       3   --121011
      Gingin               4   11122120
      Canberra             4   21122120
      Melbourne            5   22222120
      Launceston           6   22223120
      Hobart               4   11122120    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     4   02232010
      Casey                9   33212231
      Mawson              13   34323231

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           14   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             11   4331 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jun     5    Quiet
30 Jun    15    Quiet to Active
01 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet in the Australian 
region for the UT day, 28 June. Antarctic region was Quiet to 
Unsettled. Expect mostly Quiet conditions to prevail over the 
next 24 hours. Expect an increase in geomagnetic activity from 
30 June with Unsettled conditions and isolated Active periods, 
particularly at high latitudes due to an increase in the solar 
wind speed.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
30 Jun      Normal-fair    Poor-fair      Poor-fair
01 Jul      Normal-fair    Poor-fair      Poor-fair

COMMENT: Due to lower then predicted solar activity in this period 
of the solar cycle, expect MUFS to be mildly depressed relative 
to monthly predicted values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jun    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      32
Jun      44
Jul      43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
30 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30%
01 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30%

COMMENT: MUFs depressions were observed in the Australian region 
during the UT day 28 June. Noted periods sporadic E at Cocos 
Island station. Expect similar conditions during the next 24 
hours. Further MUFs depressions and degradation in HF conditions 
are possible from day 1, 30 June especially at mid and high latitudes 
as geomagnetic activity is expected to be enhanced on this day.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 466 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   102000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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