[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 16 issued 2340 UT on 12 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 13 09:40:21 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jun             14 Jun             15 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              92/37              92/37

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT 
day, 12 June, with one weak C-class flare and a number of smaller 
B-class flares. The strongest flare, C1.8 peaked at 12/2040 UT 
and was from Region 2552. The two day outlook (13-14 June) is 
for very low solar activity with chance of C-class flares due 
to flaring potential from Region 2554. Region 2552 will soon 
rotate to the far-side of the Sun. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speeds 
remained moderately enhanced near 500 km/s throughout the UT 
day 12 June. These are effects of high speed solar wind streams 
(HSS) associated with the large Northern Hemisphere coronal hole. 
The Bz component of IMF fluctuated rapidly between -10 and +10 
nT during the last 12 hours of the UT day. Meanwhile Bt was steady 
near 10 nT. The two day outlook (13 -14 June) is for the solar 
winds to remain at these moderately enhanced levels. This is 
in response to the waning effects of Northern Hemisphere coronal 
hole combined with the effects of an approaching small equatorial 
coronal hole. In the previous rotation, the daily mean solar 
wind speeds were greater at 400 km/s for at least 7 consecutive 
days during the passage of these two coronal holes. Similar effects 
are expected in this rotations.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12222231
      Cocos Island         6   12212231
      Darwin               7   12222231
      Townsville           7   12222231
      Learmonth            8   12322232
      Alice Springs        7   12222232
      Norfolk Island       5   12121221
      Gingin               7   11222232
      Camden               7   12222231
      Canberra             6   12221231
      Melbourne            7   12222231
      Launceston           7   12222232
      Hobart               6   12221231    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     7   01333121
      Casey               13   33332332
      Mawson              16   33432324

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              46   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            47   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           44   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   4222 2224     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jun    12    Unsettled
14 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region 
were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels during the past 24 hours 
(June 12). Despite the moderately enhanced solar wind speeds due 
to HSS from the coronal hole, no significant geomagnetic disturbances 
were noticed due to unfavourable IMF Bz conditions. The two day 
outlook (13-14 June) is for geomagnetic activity to be generally 
at quiet to unsettled levels as moderately high solar wind 
speeds are expected to continue for next few days. This is 
a combined effect of the waning Northern Hemisphere coronal hole 
and the approaching small equatorial coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected today, 13 June, 
in the mid and low latitude regions. Expect some degradation 
of high latitude MUFs today in response to the forecasted unsettled 
geomagnetic conditions associated with the coronal hole. Depressions 
are expected to be stronger in the Northern Hemisphere regions 
compared to the Southern Hemisphere regions during this time 
of the year.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jun    41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      32
Jun      44
Jul      43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jun    35    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun    35    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun    35    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 11 June 
and is current for 12-13 Jun. During the past 24 hours (12 June), 
the nighttime MUFs over the Northern parts of Australia were 
moderately depressed. On the day side and as well as the Southern 
Australian Regions, MUFs were near the monthly predicted levels. 
The two day outlook (13-14 June) is HF conditions to be near 
the monthly predicted levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 476 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   200000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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