[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 16 issued 2339 UT on 10 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 11 09:39:03 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 10 June, with no notable flares. The two day outlook (11-12
June) is for solar activity to remain at very low levels with
small chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in available coronagraph imagery. The anticipated corotating
interacting region (CIR) and the subsequent high speed solar
wind streams (HSS) associated with the large Northern Hemisphere
coronal hole arrived at 10/0800 UT and 10/1900 UT, respectively.
The solar wind speed prior to the arrival of HSS was steady near
the nominal level of 350 km/s. Post HSS, the winds gradually
accelerated and is currently near 450 km/s. The Bz component
of IMF was very weak, fluctuating between -3 and +3 nT, prior
of arrival of CIR. Post CIR, Bz fluctuated between -12 and +12
nT. Bt increased gradually during the arrival of the coronal
hole effects and peaked to 14 nT at 10/2000 UT. The outlook for
11 June is for the solar winds to further enhance in response
to the passing coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 01012121
Cocos Island 4 11-12121
Darwin 4 11112121
Townsville 4 11112121
Learmonth 5 02113121
Alice Springs 2 00002121
Norfolk Island 2 01002111
Gingin 3 00003121
Camden 4 11112121
Canberra 2 01012120
Melbourne 4 01013121
Launceston 4 01013121
Hobart 2 01012120
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 00013010
Casey 6 22113122
Mawson 17 03211264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2100 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jun 20 Active
12 Jun 16 Active
13 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region
were mostly at quiet levels during the past 24 hours (June 10).
Today (11 June) conditions are expected to be mostly at active
levels and at times reaching minor storm levels in response to
the HSS emanating from a large Northern Hemisphere coronal hole.
On UT day 12 June, mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions
are expected in response to the passage of the coronal hole.
There is chance that aurora may be visible from high magnetic
latitude regions of Australia (Tasmania and some parts of Victoria)
at the local night of 11 June.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jun Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
13 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected today, 11 June,
in the mid and low latitude regions. Expect strong degradation
of high latitude MUFs today in response to the forecasted active
conditions associated with the approaching coronal hole. Depressions
are expected to be stronger in the Northern Hemisphere regions
compared to the Southern Hemisphere regions during this time
of the year.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jun 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 22 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: During the past 24 hours (10 June), minor to moderate
MUF depressions were observed over most parts of Australia due
to very low levels of solar ionising radiation. The Antarctic
region MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values. Slightly
improved MUFs are expected today, June 11, in response to the
forecasted active periods associated with the coronal hole effects.
The outlook of 12-13 June is of HF conditions to degrade slightly
in mid and high latitude regions of Australia. These conditions
are expected after the passage of active period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 48000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list