[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 July 16 issued 2352 UT on 26 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 27 09:52:18 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
the largest event being a B9.3 flare at 1535UT from a region
beyond the west limb. The sun is currently spotless and there
were no earth-directed CMEs observed in the available SOHO LASCO
imagery. Solar wind velocity gradually declined from ~400km/s
at 00UT to be ~350km/s at the time of this report. Bz ranged
between +/-3nT, with sustained southward periods between 09-15UT
and 17-22UT. The solar wind is currently at background ambient
levels which is expected to change over the next 2 days with
the arrival of two high speed solar wind streams, firstly from
a northern hemisphere positioned coronal hole (within the next
12-24 hours) and secondly from a equatorial located coronal hole
(in the next 36-48 hours). Solar activity is expected to be Very
Low to Low for the next 3 days with only slight chance of a C-class
flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 01012111
Cocos Island 1 01001111
Darwin 2 11011111
Townsville 3 02112101
Learmonth 1 01002010
Alice Springs 2 02002110
Norfolk Island 2 11012101
Culgoora 7 --222222
Gingin 3 02002121
Canberra 1 01002100
Launceston 4 02113201
Hobart 3 01113200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 01002100
Casey 6 23202112
Mawson 19 23311164
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 24 4544 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
29 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Unsettled
conditions possible for 27Jul due to expected arrival of a high
speed solar wind stream from a northern hemisphere positioned
coronal hole. Active periods expected for 28-29Jul due to continued
coronal hole effects from a second equatorial located coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
28 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
29 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Mainly depressed conditions for HF radio wave propagation
across all latitudes for 26Jul. MUF's are expected to range from
slightly depressed to near monthly normal values for 27Jul for
low to mid latitudes with continued disturbed conditions high
latitudes. Chance of elevated geomagnetic activity on 28-29Jul
resulting in depressed conditions across all latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jul 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jul 20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 10 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
29 Jul 10 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 26 July
and is current for 26-27 Jul. Variable ionospheric support for
Northern AUS and Equatorial regions over the last 24 hours with
brief periods of enhancement and notable depressed MUF's. Similar
conditions for Southern AUS and NZ regions with disturbed conditions
for Antarctic regions. Only minor ionospheric recovery is to
be expected over the next 24 hours due to low solar activity
and anticipated arrival of further coronal hole driven geomagnetic
activity over the next 3 days resulting in depressed MUF's of
~~20% for 28-29Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 32700 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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