[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 31 10:30:30 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low for the UT day, 30
Jan. All visible regions on the solar disk are either stable
or declining. The 3-day outlook is for Very Low to Low solar
activity with weak C class flares. SDO images noted a disappearing
solar filament from the southwest limb at approximately 2100UT.
A CME was observed in SOHO LASCO imagery about this time, unlikely
to be geoeffective. No other Earthward directed CMEs were noted
in available SOHO imagery for 30 Jan. The solar wind speed is
currently under 300km/s. The Bz component of the IMF varied between
+/-4 nT over the last 24 hours. Expect the solar wind speed to
be at nominal levels 31 Jan-2 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11010101
Cocos Island 1 11010000
Darwin 1 11100101
Townsville 2 11110101
Learmonth 1 10100101
Norfolk Island 1 11000001
Culgoora 1 11010001
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 11010101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 5 23210111
Mawson 2 21100111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0001 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 5 Quiet
01 Feb 5 Quiet
02 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels throughout
the Australian region during the UT day, 30 Jan. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain Quiet 31 Jan - 2 Feb in the Australian
region.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions for HF radio propagation
may be observed 31 Jan-2 Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan 50 Near predicted monthly values
01 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were near predicted
monthly values to slightly depressed. Periods of blanketing sporadic-E
conditions continue to be observed at many mid-latitude locations
today. Expect similar conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 305 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 16600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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