[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 28 10:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 112/63 115/66
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low during 27 Jan UT with a
single C1 flare from region 2489(N10E27) at 1330UT. More C class
flares are likely with a slight chance of an isolated M class
flare during 28-30Jan. Newly arrived SOHO LASCO imagery showed
a CME ~1800UT/26 Jan associated with the filament eruption ~1700
UT/26 Jan (pending further analysis for potential geoeffectiveness).
No Earthward directed CMEs were noted in available SOHO imagery
for 27 Jan. The solar wind speed remained under 400 km/s during
27 Jan. IMF Bz component varied between +8/-5 nT, predominately
positive. High solar wind stream from a large polar coronal hole
may enhance solar wind speeds in the coming days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 23221002
Cocos Island 4 13221000
Darwin 5 13221002
Townsville 8 24231012
Learmonth 5 23221001
Norfolk Island 4 13120002
Culgoora 5 23221002
Canberra 3 13120001
Launceston 9 24331102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 02110101
Casey 15 34532112
Mawson 11 34322113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0001 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 15 Quiet to Unsettled with possible isolated Active
periods.
29 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels
throughout the Australian region during the UT day, 27 Jan. Isolated
periods of Active to Minor Storm levels observed in the Antarctic
region. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain Quiet to Unsettled
28-30 Jan in the Australian region. Possible isolated Active
to Minor Storm levels at higher latitudes and the Antarctic region
on 28 Jan especially if IMF Bz has an extended southward excursion.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions may be observed
during 28-29 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan 50 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jan 50 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mostly normal
for UT day, 27 January. Minor degradations in HF conditions may
be observed during 28-29 Jan due to a possible rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 21800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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