[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 16 issued 2339 UT on 14 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Fri Jan 15 10:39:30 EST 2016

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan:  Very low

Flares: B class flare

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 103/52

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jan             16 Jan             17 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 14 Jan UT. 
AR 2480 produced a single B3.7 class flare. A zonally aligned 
filament is traversing the central meridian in the Northern Hemisphere. 
A lesser solar filament located just west of the solar meridian 
disappeared in the Southern Hemisphere at 20 UT. LASCO coronograph 
observations for the interval after this event will become available 
later today. The solar wind speed decreased to about 440 km/s 
during 14 Jan. It is expected to decrease further before the 
possible impact of fast wind during 17-18 Jan. The magnitude 
of the IMF decreased from about 6 nT to 4 nT and the Bz component 
fluctuated mostly between about -5 nT and +5 nT during 14 Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222122
      Cocos Island         4   22111111
      Darwin               5   21222112
      Townsville           6   22222112
      Learmonth            8   22222223
      Alice Springs        6   22222112
      Norfolk Island       5   21222121
      Culgoora             6   12322112
      Gingin               7   22222222
      Canberra             5   12222112
      Melbourne            9   22332222
      Launceston          11   22333223
      Hobart               9   22332222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     8   21323311
      Casey               35   46653233
      Mawson              24   33333436

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   3412 2231     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jan     5    Quiet
16 Jan     5    Quiet
17 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet throughout the Australian 
region during 14 Jan UT. Geomagnetic activity is expected to 
remain quiet during 15-16 Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values in the Southern Hemisphere and 
depressed mildly in the Northern Hemisphere during 15-16 Jan 
UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Jan    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      55
Jan      61
Feb      61

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jan    55    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jan    60    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jan    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were near predicted 
monthly values during 14 Jan UT. However, they were enhanced 
mildly at low latitudes and depressed mildly at high latitudes, 
especially during the first half of the day. Conditions for HF 
radio propagation are expected to be near normal during 15-16 
Jan. Sporadic E layers will form at many mid-latitude locations 
this morning.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 540 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   164000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.