[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 13 10:30:30 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan:  Very low

Flares: B class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jan             14 Jan             15 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 12 Jan UT. 
AR 2483 produced the largest flare of the day, a B6.8 event peaking 
at 09:07 UT. Weak C class flares are possible during the next 
3 days. The Earth is immersed in fast wind. The solar wind speed 
fluctuated between about 500 and 650 km/s during 12 Jan. The 
magnitude of the IMF reached about 8 nT and is presently about 
7 nT. The Bz component fluctuated mostly between about -7 nT 
and +7 nT during 12 Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   32323222
      Cocos Island         7   31222222
      Darwin               8   31223222
      Townsville           8   22223222
      Learmonth           11   32323322
      Alice Springs       10   32323222
      Norfolk Island       9   22323222
      Culgoora             9   --323222
      Gingin              11   42322232
      Canberra            10   32323222
      Melbourne           11   32323232
      Launceston          13   32323333
      Hobart              10   32323222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    14   32235222
      Casey               30   46543333
      Mawson              26   53433354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra            42   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           36   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   1221 1343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jan    12    Unsettled
14 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 10 January and 
is current for 12-13 Jan. Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled 
throughout the Australian region during 12 Jan UT, and is expected 
to remain quiet to unsettled today, 13 Jan. The planetary Kp 
index reached 4 during 00-03 UT on 12 Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were depressed throughout 
the Northern and Southern Hemispheres during the early hours 
of 12 Jan UT. These depressions were associated with the moderate 
Kp=4 geomagnetic activity. Support for radio wave propagation 
recovered to near normal at mid-latitude locations throughout 
the day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jan    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      55
Jan      61
Feb      61

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jan    60    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jan    65    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jan    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were depressed throughout 
the Australian region during the early hours of 12 Jan UT. Real 
time T indices decreased to minus 40 at some low latitude locations. 
The preliminary daily T index was -10 for Darwin. As the day 
progressed, support for radio wave propagation recovered to near 
normal or better at most mid-latitude stations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 464 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   156000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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