[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 10 10:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days. A CME
observed near region 2481 (S20W79) is unlikely to be geoeffective.
The solar wind speed showed a slightly downward trend and is
currently around 430 km/s. Total IMF strength increased to 7
nT, while the Bz component varied from -5 to +6 nT. Solar wind
speed is likely to rise from late 12-Jan due to a northern hemisphere
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21111112
Cocos Island 0 -0001100
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 4 11121122
Learmonth 4 20122111
Alice Springs 3 10111112
Norfolk Island 2 10111111
Culgoora 4 11211122
Gingin 4 20121211
Camden 4 21220---
Canberra 4 11211112
Melbourne 5 21221112
Launceston 6 21222222
Hobart 5 21221112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 21131101
Casey 19 55422222
Mawson 10 43223211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1222 2001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jan 5 Quiet
11 Jan 5 Quiet
12 Jan 12 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region on 9-Jan, with some active to minor storm periods in the
Antarctic early in the UT day. Quiet conditions are expected
on 10-11 Jan, with active periods possible from late on 12-Jan
under the influence of a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jan 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values on 9-Jan.
Periods of sporadic-E were observed. MUFs are expected be near
monthly predicted values to mildly enhanced for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 508 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 86300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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