[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 25 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 26 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Region 2506 (S07E43) grew and had nearby filament activity. Solar
activity is expected to be very low to low over the next 3 days.
The solar wind speed declined to ~290 km/s around 1230 UT, later
peaking ~370 km/s, currently ~340 km/s. The total IMF strength
increased, peaking at around 13 nT, currently around 11 nT. The
Bz component varied between +/-5 nT until around 18 UT, then
between -8 to +11 nT, currently around +9 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11121112
Cocos Island 3 21011111
Darwin 4 21121112
Townsville 4 21121112
Learmonth 4 21121102
Norfolk Island 2 11020012
Culgoora 4 11121112
Gingin 3 21111101
Camden 4 11121112
Canberra 0 00010001
Launceston 4 21121112
Hobart 3 11120112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 01010001
Casey 11 33332113
Mawson 13 53411112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 3121 2011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Feb 5 Quiet
28 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region on 25-Feb. Quiet conditions are likely to prevail for
the next few days unless IMF Bz has an extended southward excursion,
in which case some unsettled periods are possible on 26-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Feb 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions were observed in northern Australia
and equatorial regions on 25-Feb. MUFs near monthly predicted
values are expected for 26-28 Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 33900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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