[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 27 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Wed Dec 28 10:30:39 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT
day 27 December, with only B-class flares all of which were from
Region 2612. This region is currently located near the west limb,
N10W60. Very low levels of solar activity is expected for the
next 3 days (28-30 December) with chance of C-class flares. No
Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery
on UT day 27 December. The solar wind speed gradually decreased
from ~700 km/s to 500 km/s over the UT day 27 December in response
to the waning effects of a positive polarity coronal hole. The
IMF Bt was steady near 4 nT over the UT day. The Bz component
varied between -4 and +4 nT. The two day outlook (28-29 December)
is for the solar winds to continue to trend toward nominal levels
as the coronal hole effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 22231121
Cocos Island 5 22122111
Darwin 7 22231122
Townsville 6 22231121
Learmonth 7 22232122
Norfolk Island 4 12220022
Culgoora 5 22211121
Gingin 6 22222122
Camden 6 22231121
Canberra 6 22231121
Launceston 10 33332122
Hobart 7 23232111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 22133111
Casey 21 45533222
Mawson 25 44333255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18 5433 3423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The Earth is still under the influence of moderately
strong solar wind streams from the positive polarity coronal
hole. Magnetic activity was quiet to unsettled across the Australian
region on UT day 27 December. The Australian region Dst dipped
below -20 nT for few short-lived periods during the UT day. These
are associated with enhanced solar wind speeds emanating from
the coronal hole. The two day outlook (28-29 December) is for
the geomagnetic conditions to range mostly from quiet to unsettled
levels. This is forecasted because the solar winds associated
with the coronal hole are still at moderately elevated levels,
though the winds are now on a declining trend.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed on UT
day 27 December in the mid and high southern hemisphere regions.
MUFs in the northern hemisphere regions were mostly near the
monthly predicted levels. Similar MUF conditions are expected
for today, 28 December
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on 26 December
and is current for 27-28 Dec. Minor to moderate depressions in
MUFs occurred over most Australian regions on UT day 27 December,
with depressions even extending into the equatorial regions.
These are thought to be due to loss in ionisation levels associated
with active conditions observed on UT day 26 December associated
with the coronal hole. The outlook for today 28 December is for
similar MUF conditions as the ionosphere gradually recovers from
the substorm effects. HF support are expected to return to near
monthly predicted levels from late 29 December. HF users are
advised to use lower than the monthly predicted frequencies today,
28 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 663 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 213000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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