[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 December 16 issued 2348 UT on 10 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 11 10:48:41 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:YELLOW ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity on Dec 10 was Low due to a C4 flare at
10/1715UT from active region 2615 which has rotated around the
west limb. Expect Very Low activity for the next three days.
No visible sunspots observed in white light at 10/1430UT from
San Vito Solar Observatory. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
during the UT day, 10 Dec, in available LASCO imagery up to 10/1736UT.
Solar wind speed has decreased from ~700 km/s to ~625 Km/s and
is expected to continue gradually decrease to nominal levels
over the next two days as the southern hemisphere trans-equatorial
negative polarity coronal hole rotates west toward the limb.
The IMF Bz component fluctuated to +/-5nT and the Btotal field
ranged from 4 to 7nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 22233222
Cocos Island 5 22122210
Darwin 7 22223212
Townsville 10 32233222
Learmonth 13 33234321
Alice Springs 8 22233211
Norfolk Island 8 22233212
Gingin 12 32234322
Camden 9 22233222
Canberra 9 22233222
Launceston 14 33334322
Hobart 15 333341--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec :
Macquarie Island 18 33345321
Casey 41 56653343
Mawson 44 56444653
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 60 (Unsettled)
Canberra 67 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22 4144 3444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 9 December
and is current for 10-11 Dec. The Earth is currently under the
influence of a moderate to strong coronal hole solar wind stream.
Observed regional geomagnetic conditions on Dec 10 ranged from
Quiet to Active in the Australian region with minor storm periods
observed at higher latitudes. The Australian Dst index was predominately
negative dipping -40nT at its minimum during the UT day Dec 10.
Expect the geomagnetic activity to gradually wane over the next
two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
12 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable conditions observed at low latitudes. Moderate
depressions occurred in southern hemisphere mid to high-latitude
regions. Similar HF conditions are expected 11-12 December, with
periods of disturbance at high latitudes due to elevated geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 65 was issued on 7 December
and is current for 8-11 Dec. Minor depressions noted in the Southern
Indo-Pacific equatorial regions. Near predicted MUF values over
the Northern Australian region. Minor depression observed over
the Southern Australian region during local night and moderate
depressions observed during the local day time hours. Periods
of strong sporadic-E conditions observed in the Australian region
throughout the UT day, 10 December. Expect similar conditions
to prevail over the next two days with a return to near predicted
values on day 3, 13 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 644 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 294000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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