[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 December 16 issued 2336 UT on 08 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 9 10:36:34 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no notable flares. Very Low activity is expected for the next
3 days, 9-11 December. The CME associated with the disappearing
solar filament observed on 7 December is unlikely to impact Earth.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery
on UT day 8 December. The solar wind speed increased from 470
km/s to 670 km/s over the UT day 8 December. These enhancements
in solar wind speeds are due to the arrival of high speed streams
from a large recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole. The
IMF Bt varied between 3 and 16nT over the UT day, and is currently
steady at ~6nT. The Bz component varied between +-10nT. Solar
wind speed is likely to remain enhanced over the next 3 days,
9-11 December, as the coronal hole effects are expected to persist.
In the previous rotation, this coronal hole caused solar wind
speeds to be in excess of 500 km/s for 4 consecutive days. Slightly
stronger effects are expected in this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Unsettled to
Active
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 18 33333443
Cocos Island 13 23333332
Darwin 15 33233433
Townsville 18 33333443
Learmonth 22 33244543
Alice Springs 16 33333433
Norfolk Island 14 33332333
Gingin 22 33334543
Camden 17 23333443
Canberra 16 33333433
Launceston 20 -3334443
Hobart 18 33333443
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Dec :
Macquarie Island 35 33245733
Casey 40 56553444
Mawson 60 54444577
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 13 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 12 (Quiet)
Gingin 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 0232 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 25 Active
10 Dec 22 Active
11 Dec 20 Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 5 December
and is current for 7-9 Dec. Magnetic activity was Unsettled to
Active across the Australian region on UT day 8-Dec. The Australian
Dst dipped below -40nT at ~08/2100UT. This was due to enhanced
solar winds. Active periods with chance of minor storms are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 9-11 Dec. This is in response to high
speed solar wind streams emanating from a large southern hemisphere
coronal hole. Auroras may be visible on the local nights of 9
and 10 December in Tasmania and possibly the coastline of Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal-fair Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Fair Fair-poor Poor
10 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
11 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs were observed over the mid-
and low-latitude regions during UT day 8 December. Moderate depressions
occurred in the high-latitude regions. Similar HF conditions
are expected today, 9 December, with further degradation of MUFs
expected over all latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec -10 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
10 Dec -20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
11 Dec -30 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 65 was issued on 7 December
and is current for 8-11 Dec. Minor depressions in MUFs were experienced
over most of the Australian region on UT day 08 December. Over
the next three days (09-11 December), minor to moderate MUF depressions
are expected due to disturbed geomagnetic conditions. HF users
are advised to use lower than the monthly predicted frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 32200 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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