[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 01 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 2 10:30:23 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Dec             03 Dec             04 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Very low activity is expected 
for the next 3 days, with a chance of C-class flares. The solar 
wind speed varied between 330-390 km/s, currently 360 km/s. The 
IMF total strength declined to around 4 nT. The Bz component 
varied between -3 to +5 nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22201001
      Cocos Island         2   12201000
      Darwin               3   22201001
      Townsville           3   22201001
      Learmonth            3   22212000
      Alice Springs        3   22201001
      Norfolk Island       3   22200001
      Gingin               3   22201000
      Camden               7   32211222
      Canberra             3   22201000
      Launceston           4   23211001
      Hobart               4   12201003    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     1   11100000
      Casey                7   34311000
      Mawson               7   34212000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0020 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Dec     3    Quiet
03 Dec     6    Quiet, with possible minor storm late in the 
                day.
04 Dec    12    Active to Minor Storm early in day.

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 53 was issued on 1 December 
and is current for 3-4 Dec. Magnetic conditions over the Australian 
region were quiet on 1-Dec and are expected to remain so on 2-Dec. 
A small coronal hole could bring brief active periods to the 
Australian region from late on 3-Dec or early 4-Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Dec    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      24
Jan      23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Dec    20    Near predicted monthly values
03 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values on 1-Dec, 
with more variation in equatorial regions. MUFs are likely to 
remain near predicted monthly values on 2-Dec, with the possibility 
of some mild depressions 3-4 Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 370 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    15300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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