[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 06 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 7 09:30:19 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Aug             08 Aug             09 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Probable
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 
6 August, with one only B-class flares. The two day outlook (7-8 
August) is for very low levels of solar activity with slight 
chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery during the last 24 hours. 
The solar winds were still at moderately elevated levels of ~600 
km/s during the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated 
between -5 nT and +5 nT. Meanwhile Bt was steady near 6 nT during 
the UT day. These high solar wind speeds are caused by high speed 
streams from the coronal hole. The outlook for today (7 August) 
and early tomorrow (8 August) is for the solar winds to decrease 
slightly as the effects of the coronal hole wanes. On late UT 
day 8 August, the solar winds are expected to enhance again as 
a new equatorial coronal approaches geoeffective location on 
the solar disk

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22242222
      Cocos Island         5   11222112
      Townsville          10   22342222
      Learmonth           10   123332--
      Alice Springs        8   22232222
      Norfolk Island       9   21342112
      Culgoora             8   22232222
      Gingin              11   22243322
      Canberra             9   22242221
      Launceston          14   22353222
      Hobart              12   22253221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    28   21275311
      Casey               18   34343423
      Mawson              39   34544366

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            51   (Unsettled)


Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             16   2444 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Aug    12    Unsettled
09 Aug    20    Active

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region 
were mostly unsettled and at times reached active levels on UT 
day 6 August. The Australian region Dst index dipped to a low 
of -39 nT at 06/1100 UT. These fluctuations in geomagnetic levels 
are due to very high solar speed streams of greater 500 km/s 
still emanating from the coronal hole. The two day outlook (7 
- 8 August) for mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions as the 
current coronal effects begin to wane. From late UT 8 August, 
geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach active levels and 
at times approaching minor storm levels as another isolated equatorial 
coronal hole becomes geoeffective.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions were observed in the Northern 
Hemisphere regions on UT day 6 August. Slight improvements in 
HF conditions are expected in the Northern Hemisphere regions today, 
7 August, as the ionosphere continues to recover from the 3 August 
storms. In the Southern Hemisphere, expect slightly depressed 
to near monthly predicted MUFs today, 7 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Aug    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      27
Aug      38
Sep      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Aug    22    Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug    18    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Slightly depressed to near monthly predicted MUF's were 
observed over most Australasia regions during the last 24 hours 
(6 August) with the largest depressions over the Southern Australian 
regions. HF conditions are expected to remain at similar levels 
today (7 August) as the ionosphere continues to recover from 
the 3 August storms. More improved HF conditions are expected 
on 8 August, Day 1 of possible active conditions as a separate 
equatorial coronal hole becomes geoeffective.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 629 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   213000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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