[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 25 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 26 09:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 81/22
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 25 April.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3
days with a slight chance of C-class flares. The solar wind speed
remained near 500 km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/-5 nT and
was predominantly positive. Expect the solar wind speed to trend
towards ambient levels over the next 24 hours as the effects
of the coronal hole wanes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11211100
Cocos Island 2 11211100
Darwin 3 12211101
Townsville 3 11211111
Learmonth 3 21211110
Alice Springs 2 11211100
Norfolk Island 1 10111000
Gingin 3 11221110
Camden 2 11121100
Canberra 3 11221100
Launceston 4 11221111
Hobart 3 11121110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 11131000
Casey 11 34422111
Mawson 10 32224222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 9 1111 2431
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Apr 5 Quiet
28 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet in the Australian
region during 25 Apr UT. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be Quiet but at times could reach Unsettled levels during
the next 24 hours as the solar wind speeds are still at moderate
levels. Expect a return to Quiet conditions over 27-28 Apr as
the solar wind returns to nominal levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
27 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed periods are likely over the next 3 days due
to low ionization levels resulting from lower than predicted
solar activity for this period in the solar cycle.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Apr 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Apr 40 Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation on UT day, 25 Apr,
were generally depressed over all Australian region. Isolated
periods of sporadic E and spread F were noted in the Australian
region. Expect near predicted values to mild depressions over
the next 3 days due to low incoming solar ionising flux.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 521 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 148000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list