[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 September 15 issued 2354 UT on 18 Sep 2015

Sat Sep 19 09:54:43 EST 2015

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep: 103/52

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Sep             20 Sep             21 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was low due to C-class flaring from region 
2415 including a long duration C2.6 flare with associated Type 
II and IV radio sweeps and a CME. This CME is primarily southward 
directed out of the ecliptic plane and is only expected to have 
a glancing impact late on 20 September. Solar activity is expected 
to mostly low with the small chance of M-class flares. Mildly 
elevated solar wind speeds are expected to continue to persist 
over the next few days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 18 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21332222
      Cocos Island         6   21222221
      Darwin               8   21332222
      Townsville           8   21332222
      Learmonth            9   21333222
      Alice Springs        7   10332222
      Norfolk Island       7   21232122
      Culgoora             7   21232122
      Gingin               7   21232222
      Canberra            10   11343222
      Launceston          14   22353222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    25   21465421
      Casey               11   33322232
      Mawson              34   44423366

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           22   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             11   4233 1113     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Sep    15    Initially quiet to unsettled with active to minor 
                storm periods possible late in the UT day.
21 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region were 
mostly quiet to unsettled with elevated activity at high latitudes. 
Isolated active and minor storm periods at high latitudes are 
possible as lingering coronal effects subside slowly otherwise 
conditions should be mostly quiet to unsettled for 19-20 September 
with a possible increase late on 20 September due to the anticipated 
glancing impact from a CME.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
20 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
21 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are expected to continue 
over the next few days primarily due to low levels of ionising 
solar radiation.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Sep    41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 20%.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      46
Sep      75
Oct      73

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Sep    40    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
20 Sep    40    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
21 Sep    40    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 53 was issued on 18 
September and is current for 18-19 Sep. IPS HF Communications 
Warning 54 was issued on 18 September and is current for 18-19 
Sep. Mildly degraded HF conditions were observed during 18 September 
over the Australian region due to low levels of ionising radiation 
and sustained mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels. Similar 
HF conditions are expected for the next few days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 454 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    72600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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