[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 04 Sep 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 5 09:30:24 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 4 Sep. There were few isolated B-class flares. The largest
was B4.4 occurring at 04/0518 from region 2409. A disappearing
solar filament (DSF) was observed on GONG H Alpha at ~04/1900
UT from the southeast sector (~S10E20) of the sun. At the time
of witting this report, no SOHO LASCO coronagrams images were
available over this interval to conclude if there was an earth-directed
CME from this event. Based on the available information and the
location of the DSF, it appears that this event will not have
an impact on earth. The 2-day outlook (5-6 Sep) is for very low
solar activity with small chance of C class flares. During the
last 24 hours, the solar wind fluctuated between 400 and 550
km/s, the current solar wind speed is 450 km/s. The Bz component
of IMF fluctuated between -/+10 nT. The Bt ranged from 6-18 nT
in the past 24 hours and has exhibited a declining trend in the
last 6 hours (from 04/1700 UT). Expect solar winds to remain
elevated over the next day as the effects of the small positive
polarity equatorial coronal hole (CH95) wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A K
Australian Region 12 32343221
Cocos Island 7 22322221
Darwin 11 33333221
Townsville 16 33344322
Learmonth 10 32333221
Alice Springs 11 32333321
Norfolk Island 13 33343221
Culgoora 12 32343221
Camden 12 22343321
Gingin 11 32333231
Canberra 10 22343210
Melbourne 17 23354321
Launceston 19 33454321
Hobart 18 23454321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Sep :
Macquarie Island 33 33665331
Casey 12 43323222
Mawson 34 55633344
Davis 22 45443241
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Melbourne 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1411 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Sep 12 Unsettled
06 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly unsettled and at
times active during the last 24 hours (UT day 4 Sep). The Australian
Dst-index reached levels of -70 nT at ~0730 UT. The disturbed
conditions over the last 24 hours is the combined effect of high
speed solar wind stream emanating from the positive polarity
equatorial coronal hole (CH 95) and Bz remaining negative (southwards)
for prolonged periods on the UT day. The next day outlook is
geomagnetic conditions will be generally unsettled as the coronal
hole effects wane. However, there could be minor storms in the
higher latitude regions since the solar winds are expected remain
strong over the next day and provided if Bz again turns to strongly
negative for prolonged periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Globally, conditions for HF radio wave propagation are
depressed. The foF2 values over the Australian region are generally
10%-40% below long term predicted monthly values. Propagation
conditions are expected to trend back towards monthly predicted
values during the 4 week period approaching September equinox.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Sep 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Sep 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 4 September
and is current for 4-5 Sep. Moderately depressed ionospheric
conditions were observed across all AUS/NZ regions during the
last 24 hours (UT day 4 Sep). These depressions are expected
to somewhat increase over the next two days as the result of
active geomagnetic conditions experienced on UT day 4 Sep associated
with coronal hole (CH 95).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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