[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 16 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 17 10:30:24 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 104/53 104/53 102/50
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to be very low for the next 3 days. The CME related
to the large filament that lifted off the south-west region around
2200UT on 15 November (UT day), does not seem to have geoeffective
component. However, a minor glancing blow may not be completely
ruled out. Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 390
km/s to 370 km/s during the UT day today and the Bz component
of IMF mostly stayed negative up to around -6nT during this period.
Solar wind speed is likely to start increasing later today due
to coronal hole effects. Solar activity is expected to stay at
very low levels for the next three days (17 to 19 November).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 22333222
Cocos Island 6 21213211
Darwin 7 11223222
Townsville 10 22333222
Learmonth 8 22223222
Alice Springs 9 22323222
Norfolk Island 8 12332222
Culgoora 10 -332--22
Gingin 8 22323221
Camden 10 22333222
Canberra 8 12332221
Launceston 14 23343332
Hobart 15 ---43332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
Macquarie Island 25 23455521
Casey 20 35523223
Mawson 29 44434355
Davis 30 45644332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2212 2113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Nov 12 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Nov 20 Active
19 Nov 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels on 16 November (UT day). Nearly similar conditions may
be expected on 17 November with an increasing trend (possibly
to some active periods) towards the late hours of this day due
to a coronal hole effect. This coronal hole effect may result
in increase in geomagnetic activity to active levels on 18 and
19 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
18 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
19 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values with some periods
of mild enhancements on 16 November. Nearly similar condition
may be expected on 17 November. Minor to mild MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions are possible on 18 and 19 November,
especially on high and some mid latitude locations due to an
expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Nov 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
18 Nov 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
19 Nov 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values across the Australian
region on 16 November. Nearly similar condition may be expected
on 17 November. Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions are possible on 18 and 19 November due to an
expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 51900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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